The following are betting tips for the Grand Final the 2024 AFL season.
Sydney will take on Brisbane at the MCG on Saturday afternoon. This is the first Grand Final to feature two non-Victorian teams since 2006.
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Draftstars has launched a $175,000 competition for the Grand Final. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Sydney (1) vs. (5) Brisbane |
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Sydney Swans
Despite starting the season as the pundits’ fifth favourite, Sydney won the minor premiership with a 17-6 record. Their 126.7 percentage was the best in the league. The Swans made a 13-1 start to the season before suffering through a 1-5 slump. Sydney then finished the regular season with a timely 3-0 run.
The Swans qualified directly for the preliminary finals by beating GWS 88-82 in their qualifying final. GWS led for 95% of the game and held a 21-point lead going into the 4th quarter, but Sydney stormed home in the final term to overrun their local rival. Sydney then defeated Port Adelaide 95-59 in their preliminary final. It was the Swans’ fifth consecutive win as they continued their timely return to form.
Sydney will play its fifth Grand Final under coach John Longmire in his 14th season in charge. Sydney won the Grand Final in 2012, but suffered defeats in their 2014 (v Hawthorn), 2016 (v Western Bulldogs) and 2022 (v Geelong) appearances.
On the injury front, the Swans are sweating on the ankle injury to key forward Logan McDonald. He missed Sydney’s first training session of the week after he left the field injured last week. Captain Callum Mills is also in doubt. Mills missed the preliminary final due to a hamstring injury.
Brisbane Lions
Brisbane started the season as the pundits’ favourite to win the minor premiership. They made a 0-3 start to the season, however, which put them on the back foot for the rest of the campaign. The Lions overcame a 4-1-6 first half of the season to finish 10-2 in the second half. The Lions finished the season 5th with a 14-1-8 record. Their 121.9 percentage was the third best in the league.
Brisbane defeated Carlton 99-71 in their qualifying final. Some wayward kicking by Brisbane kept Carlton in the contest, but the result was never seriously in doubt. Brisbane were then behind for virtually the entire game before defeating GWS 105-100 in their semi-final. GWS led by 44 points in the 3rd quarter and by 31 points during the 4th quarter, but the Lions kicked the final four goals of the game to steal the win. Brisbane then defeated Geelong 95-85 at the MCG in their preliminary final. The Lions fought back from trailing by 25 early in the third term to clinch the win.
In what has become a recurring theme for Brisbane, their efforts haven’t been helped by wayward kicking. The Lions have failed to kick more goals than behinds in five of their last six games.
This week provides an opportunity for redemption for Brisbane after they lost last year’s Grand Final by a 4-point margin to Collingwood.
On the injury front, ruckman Oscar McInerney is out after he twice dislocated his shoulder during the preliminary final.
MCG
The average total at the MCG this season has been 167.4. Sydney went 2-1 in both the head-to-head and the line at the MCG this season, with an average total score of 163.3. Brisbane also went 2-1 in the head-to-head and the line at the ‘G in 2024, with an average total score of 159.7.
Betting
Sydney has been installed as the minor favourite for this clash, with most bookmaker lines sitting at -3.5 or -4.5 at the time of writing.
The total is 170.5 or 171.5 with most bookmakers. Sydney averaged 173.4 total points per game this season, while Brisbane averaged 170.5. As alluded to before, both sides averaged scores below 170 at the MCG this season. I don’t have a strong opinion, but if I had to wager on this market, I would take under 171.5 at 1.91 (bet365).
Sydney boasts an 18-4 record as the favourite this season, however Brisbane boasts a formidable 4-1-1 head-to-head and 6-0 line record as the underdog. Looking back at longer-term data, Sydney boast a 10-2 record in their last twelve clashes as the favourite against Brisbane. The caveat to these statistics, however, is Sydney is only the marginal favourite this week.
The Lions defeated the Swans in each of their last three meetings:
2024: Brisbane 11.13 (79) – (77) 11.11 Sydney
2023: Brisbane 13.19 (97) – (81) 12.9 Sydney
2022: Sydney 13.11 (89) – (113) 17.11 Brisbane
It’s worth noting that both sides have only suffered one 40+ defeat each this season. In a run starting in 2018, the last seven clashes between these two sides was settled by 1-39 points. Only one of the last eight meetings between Sydney and Brisbane outside the Gabba was won by 40+. Narrowing it down further, Sydney has only suffered one 25+ defeat this season and only one 25+ defeat against Brisbane since mid-April, 2009.
I would back:
0.6 units on Sydney 1-39 at 2.30 (Unibet)
0.4 units on Brisbane 1-24 at 3.60 (Dabble)
One additional bet for this game is for Brisbane to win the first quarter at 2.05 (Dabble). In 2024, Sydney has an insipid 10-1-14 first quarter record. The Swans have only won the first quarter in two of their last eight games. Brisbane, on the other hand, has the league-best 22-4 first quarter record.