The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Gameweek 15 of the 2024/25 English Premier League season. Where two or more options are provided for the same tip, pick the one that best suits your risk appetite.
My best bets each week are published on AusSportsTipping.com
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Everton vs. Liverpool |
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I have two value plays for the final EPL Mersyside Derby at Goodison Park.
Draw at 5.10 (Unibet)
Eight of Liverpool’s last twelve games at Goodison Park – when they were installed as the favourite – resulted in a draw. If you had wagered $1 on the draw for every Everton home game over the last twelve months, you would be up $6.48 in profit. If you had wagered $1 on the draw for every Liverpool away game over the same period, you would be up $3.05. If you had wagered $1 on the draw for the last fourteen Mersyside Derbies at Goodison Park, you would be up $19.82 in profit. Everton beat Wolves midweek and their two previous wins this season were followed by a draw.
0-0 correct score at 20.00 (Betfair)
Two of Everton’s last four games resulted in 0-0 stalemates. Since 2019, there have been three scoreless Mersyside Derbies at Goodison Park.
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Aston Villa vs. Southampton |
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Aston Villa in the head-to-head at 1.43 (Betfair)
The under-strength Southampton should get some reinforcements back for this game, but it’s hard to overlook their 0-1-6 away record this season.
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Crystal Palace vs. Man City |
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Man City in the head-to-head at 1.63 (Betfair)
Man City finally broke their losing run with a 3-0 midweek win over Nottingham Forest. City have gone 21-4-1 on the back of a win over the last twelve months and they have a 8-2-1 record at Selhurst Park since the Eagles were promoted. Crystal Palace have a miserable 2-6-6 record this season.
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Brentford vs. Newcastle |
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Brentford in the head-to-head at 3.00 (Betfair)
Brentford +0.5 at 1.68 (Betfair)
Brentford have been a Jekyll and Hyde team this season, based on whether they are home or away. They boast the league’s best home record (6-1-0) with a +10 goal difference. They have scored five more home goals this season than any other side. Newcastle have been mercurial this season too and their last away game saw them very lucky to escape with a draw against Crystal Palace. The Magpies have won just two of their seven away games this season.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 (bet365)
Brentford’s average total score at home this season is a league-leading 4.9. This has seen six of their seven home games go over 2.5 goals. Brentford’s last five home games went over 3.5 goals and their last four fixtures went over 4.5. Thirteen of Newcastle’s nineteen away games over the last twelve months went over 2.5 goals and they enter this game on the back of a 3-3 draw with Liverpool.
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Man Utd vs. Nottm Forest |
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Man Utd in the head-to-head at 1.69 (Betfair)
Man Utd won their first home fixture under new manager Ruben Amorim by a 4-0 scoreline over Everton. This continues a trend of strong home form for clubs under Amorim. His previous club Sporting had won all 22 home games since the start of last season. Nottingham Forest have hit a rough patch of tough fixtures. Their last two away games resulted in 3-0 defeats. Three of Forest’s last four opponents scored three times. Nottingham Forest have gone 0-0-2 at Old Trafford since promotion.
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Fulham vs. Arsenal |
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Note: Fulham have yet to play their midweek fixture against Brighton at the time of writing.
Arsenal in the head-to-head at 1.58 (betr)
Arsenal have one more day to prepare for this fixture. The Gunners have returned to top form since Martin Ødegaard’s return from injury. They won their last three games by a combined 10 goals to 2. Arsenal have gone 11-1-4 as the away favourite over the last twelve months.
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Tottenham vs. Chelsea |
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Note: Tottenham have yet to play their midweek fixture against Bournemouth at the time of writing.
Chelsea in the head-to-head at 2.40 (bet365)
Chelsea +0.5 at 1.48 (bet365)
Tottenham are always a tough side to pick due to their mercurial nature. What does stand out, though, is they have gone 0-0-3 as the home underdog over the last twelve months. They also have one less day to prepare for this fixture than the Blues. Added to that is the fact that Chelsea rested seven players in their comfortable midweek win over Southampton. Chelsea have been impressive this season. They have only lost one of their last thirteen games, and that was at Anfield. The Blues have gone 9-3-1 as the away favourite over the last twelve months. Chelsea have won four of their last five away games against Spurs. They won this fixture 4-1 last season en route to completing the double over the north London club.
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West Ham vs. Wolves |
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Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 (bet365)
This tip is based on the assumption that neither manager has lost his job between now and kickoff! Wolves have conceded an eye-watering 36 goals in 14 games this season, which is the most in the league by a 6-goal margin. Their porous defence has contributed heavily to the fact that ten of their last eleven games went over 2.5 goals. From an entertainment perspective Wolves are good value for money. Their horrific away defence is paired with the fact that only Liverpool and Chelsea have scored more away goals than Wolves this season. West Ham incredibly only scored once in their 1-3 defeat to Leicester City in midweek. They managed 31 shots in that game and a similar statistic against this Wolves defence will result in goals aplenty. Wolverhampton’s last five away games went over the total and their last three games went over 3.5 goals. Wolves’ average total score away from home this season is 4.1, which is the highest in the league. West Ham have averaged 3.2 average total goals at home this season, a statistic that is driven by the fact that they have conceded 15 goals in their 7 home fixtures. Only Wolves and Southampton have conceded more home goals than West Ham this season.