Super Rugby Pacific 2025 Season Preview & Futures Betting Tips

Posted on February 12, 2025 by | 0 Comments

Super Rugby Pacific 2025 Season Preview

Introduction

The following is a team-by-team preview for the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific season. Futures betting tips are also provided.

Competition Format

With the axing of the Melbourne Rebels, the competition now features four Australian teams to compete with the five New Zealand franchises, the Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika.

There is no conference system, however extra rivalry games are included. The regular season will consist of sixteen rounds. Each team will play fourteen games and have two bye weeks. The teams will face each other once for ten games and the remaining four games will focus on derby matches.

In a departure from previous seasons, only the top six teams will qualify for the play-offs. This will employ a qualifying finals, semi-finals and final format, with no teams receiving a preliminary round bye.

Super Rugby Pacific Team-By-Team Previews

Blues

Blues

  • Odds to win title: 3.25 (Unibet)
  • Coach: Vern Cotter (since 2024)
  • Key arrivals: Beauden Barrett (Japan), Payton Spencer (NZ 7’s), Che Clark (NZ’s 7’s to their academy)
  • Key departures: Akira Ioane (Japan), Soane Vikena (Highlanders), Caleb Tangitau (Highlanders), Bryce Heem (retired)
  • 2024 season: 2nd in the regular season with a 12-2 record. Won the title.
  • Pre-season results:
    • Blues 35-19 Crusaders
    • Hurricanes 31-19 Blues
  • Positives:
    • While they finished 2nd in the regular season last year, the Blues actually registered the most points scored, the fewest points conceded (48 fewer than anyone else) and a points difference that was 56 points better than the 1st placed Hurricanes. The Blues scored two more tries than any other side and conceded seven fewer than anyone else.
    • Beauden Barrett returns from a stint in Japan.
    • Have retained the services of Hoskins Sotutu, who was the joint top try scorer last season and the Super Rugby Pacific Player of the Year.
  • Negatives:
    • Payton Spencer is in rehab from a shoulder injury and will miss much of the season.
    • Akira Ioane has departed.
    • There’s the risk of a second-season slump under coach Vern Cotter.
  • Bottom line: The Blues are the rightful favourite to defend their title. Statistically they were a cut above the rest last season and they have been boosted by the return of Beauden Barrett.

 

Brumbies

Brumbies

  • Odds to win title: 11.00 (Unibet)
  • Coach: Stephen Larkham (since 2023)
  • Key arrivals: Feao Fotuaika (France), Tuaina Taii Tualima (Rebels), David Feliuai (Rebels)
  • Key departures: Sefo Kautai (Highlanders), Darcy Swain (Force), Jahrome Brown (Chiefs), Tamati Tua (England)
  • 2024 season: 3rd in the regular season with a 12-2 record. Lost in the semi-finals.
  • Pre-season results:
    • Waratahs 36-36 Brumbies
    • Brumbies 45-12 Force
  • Positives:
    • Have been Australia’s best and most consistent side for many years.
    • Rested their biggest stars, yet beat a near-full strength Force easily in their final pre-season outing.
    • Have fewer regular season games against New Zealand opponents than the Kiwi franchises.
    • Boast a settled squad, with 30 players returning and fourteen players with Wallabies experience.
  • Negatives:
    • Their scrum was a weakness last year and there’s little to suggest things will be different in 2025.
    • The Blues and Chiefs beat the Brumbies easily last season.
    • Australian sides have a horrific playoff record on New Zealand soil.
    • Their fellow Australian sides have been strengthened by the breaking up of the Rebels.
    • Five of the Brumbies’ wins last season were by 1-7 points, which was the most in the competition by this range. At the same time, they didn’t suffer any 1-7 point defeats. If you see the glass as half full, this means the Brumbies have excellent finishing ability, but if you see it as half empty, mean reversion suggests some of those close games will result in defeats this season.
    • Rob Valetini will miss the start of the campaign with a hamstring injury. Charlie Cale is also still in rehab. Their absences compound a tough opening schedule: Drua (A), Force (H), Chiefs (A), Blues (A).
  • Bottom line: The disbanding of the Rebels might help the Brumbies bridge the gap to the best Kiwi sides. The downside is their Australian rivals have also been bolstered – and to a further extent, so their domestic fixtures will be all tougher this season.

 

Chiefs

Chiefs

  • Odds to win title: 3.75 (bet365)
  • Coach: Clayton McMillan (since 2021)
  • Key arrivals: Brodie McAlister (Crusaders), Jahrome Brown (Brumbies)
  • Key departures: Josh Ioane (Ireland)
  • 2024 season: 4th in the regular season with a 9-5 record. Lost in the final.
  • Pre-season results:
    • Hurricanes 40-43 Chiefs
    • Chiefs 31-19 Moana Pasifika
  • Positives:
    • Had the 2nd best offence in the league last season.
    • Have enjoyed good continuity in the coaching position, with McMillan being at the helm longer than any other current Super Rugby coaching appointment.
    • Have retained the services of talisman Damian McKenzie, who was the competition’s leading point scorer last year.
  • Negatives:
    • 2024 World Rugby’s Breakout Player of the Year Wallace Sititi may miss the entire season due to knee injury.
    • Have a rough schedule to start the season: Blues (A), Crusaders (H), Brumbies (H), Drua (A), Blues (H).
    • Haven’t won a Super Rugby title since 2013, which is the longest drought among the New Zealand teams.
  • Bottom line: Since the launch of Super Rugby Pacific, the Chiefs have finished no worse than 4th in the regular season and they enter this campaign as back-to-back runners-up. They boast a settled squad with the same coach, so you could argue they are one of the better-known quantities in the competition. Once again they look odds-on for a top-six finish.

 

Crusaders

Crusaders

  • Odds to win title: 7.00 (bet365)
  • Coach: Rob Penney (since 2024)
  • Key arrivals: James O’Connor (Reds)
  • Key departures: Owen Franks, Joe Moody, Brodie McAlister (Chiefs), Zach Gallagher (Hurricanes), Riley Hohepa (Hurricanes), Fergus Burke (England), Taine Robinson (Highlanders), Heremaia Murray (Reds), Toby Arnold (retired), Leigh Halfpenny (England)
  • 2024 season: 9th in the regular season with a 4-10 record.
  • Pre-season results:
    • Blues 35-19 Crusaders
    • Highlanders 29-24 Crusaders
  • Positives:
    • Statistically, the Crusaders weren’t as bad as their 9th place finish and 4-10 record last year suggests. They finished 6th for most metrics and 4th for the fewest tries conceded. Their points difference was just -6, while the three teams who finished 6th-8th had points differences of -97, -102 and -147.
    • Six of the Crusaders ten defeats last season were by just 1-7 points.
    • The Crusaders finished last season in better form (4-5) than they started it (0-5).
    • Had genuine injury excuses last year. Tamaiti Williams, Scott Barrett and Will Jordan were among the casualties.
    • Have retained the services of Sevu Reece, who was the joint top try scorer last year.
    • Defeated the Blues last season.
    • The squad features 15 players with All Blacks caps.
    • The signing of James O’Connor adds much needed experience to their fly-half options.
  • Negatives:
    • Fell away from being Champions in 2023 to not making the playoffs in 2024 following the exodus of key All Blacks (including Richie Mo’unga and Sam Whitelock) and the departure of head coach Scott Robertson. The departure of Mo’unga hurt the most as new coach Rob Penney struggled to find the right player for the No. 10 jersey.
  • Bottom line: It remains to be seen whether Rob Penney can continue his tenure beyond the end of this season, when his two-year contract runs out. He didn’t have a successful tenure with the Wallabies and the Crusaders regressed badly (albeit with a weakened squad) under him compared to prior seasons under Scott Robertson. The experienced James O’Connor arrives, but otherwise, this is a much less experienced squad compared to the one that won the 2023 title.

 

Fijian Drua

Fijian Drua

  • Odds to win title: 26.00 (Unibet)
  • Coach: Glen Jackson (since 2025)
  • Key arrivals: Peni Ravai (Reds), Ponipate Loganimasi (Fiji 7’s), Vuate Karawalevu (Waratahs)
  • Key departures: None
  • 2024 season: 7th in the regular season with a 6-8 record. Lost in the quarter-finals.
  • Pre-season results:
    • Drua 33-26 Rugby FC Los Angeles
  • Positives:
    • No major departures from last year’s squad.
    • The squad boasts over thirty players with Test experience for Fiji. It also includes three Olympic medal-winning players from Fiji’s Paris 7’s team.
    • All seven of their home fixtures this season will be played in Fiji. The high temperatures and humidity make life very difficult for their opponents.
  • Negatives:
    • Have played just one pre-season fixture, which was against a Major League Rugby side.
    • When they lost last season, they lost badly. Seven of the Drua’s nine defeats last season were by 13+ margins.
    • Were atrocious away from home last season.
    • Will find life tougher now that the Australian teams have been bolstered by Rebels players.
    • Previous head coach Michael Byrne has taken the reigns of the Fijian national side. New coach Glen Jackson might be a step backward.
  • Bottom line: Home form will be key. If the Drua are to make the six-team playoffs, they will have to win virtually every home game, because they were miles off the pace away from home last season. Unfortunately for the Drua, three of their home fixtures are against top-4 finishers from last season. A backward step this year wouldn’t surprise me, given the infusion of Rebels players into the Australian franchises.

 

Force

Force

  • Odds to win title: 81.00 (bet365)
  • Coach: Simon Cron (since 2023)
  • Key arrivals: Harry Johnson-Holmes (Waratahs), Brandon Paenga-Amosa (France), Nic Dolly (England), Darcy Swain (Brumbies), Kane Kotega (France), Nick Champion de Crespigny (France), Vaiolini Ekuasi (Rebels), Sio Tomkinson (Wales), Divad Palu (Rebels), Dylan Pietch (Waratahs), Mac Grealy (Reds)
  • Key departures: Santiago Medrano (France), Regi Churchward (France), Sifa Amone (Waratahs), Josh Bartlett (Highlanders), Feleti Kaitu’u (France), Tom Franklin (France), Izack Rodda (France), Michael Wells (retired), Sam Spink (England), Henry O’Donnell (Waratahs), Taqele Naiyaravoro (France), Chase Tiatia (Japan)
  • 2024 season: 10th in the regular season with a 4-10 record.
  • Pre-season results:
    • Force 38-23 Cheetahs
    • Force 24-29 Emerging Ireland
    • Force 34-33 Western Province XV
    • Brumbies 45-12 Force
  • Positives:
    • Had genuine injury excuses last year. This required signing new players on emergency short-term contracts.
    • Have been proactive in the off-season at addressing their squad depth issues. The current rosters features 17 players with international experience.
    • Kurtley Beale has stayed on after joining as an injury replacement last season.
  • Negatives:
    • Regressed last season following Simon Cron’s promising first year in charge.
    • Had the second worst offensive record last season. The Force finished last for carries, defenders beaten and offloads.
    • Like groundhog day, they have undergone a high amount of player turnover during the off-season, so it may be a while before the squad settles and the coach knows his besting starting XV.
    • The Force fielded a near-full strength side but were comprehensively beaten by an understrength Brumbies side in their final pre-season outing.
    • Given they are underdogs to make the top six, the Force’s bye in Round 16 is unfortunately placed.
  • Bottom line: The new-look (again!) Force might be a bit undercooked for the start of the season, so they may be set for another slow start. They do have plenty of upside potential from last year, however, due to their unlucky run with injuries in 2024.

 

Highlanders

Highlanders

  • Odds to win title: 41.00 (bet365)
  • Coach: Jamie Joseph (2010-16 and since 2025)
  • Key arrivals: Sefo Kautai Brumbies), Josh Bartlett (Force), Soane Vikena (Blues), TK Howden (Hurricanes), Veveni Lasaqa (Hurricanes), Taine Robinson (Crusaders), Caleb Tangitau (Blues), Thomas Umaga-Jensen (Otago)
  • Key departures: Jermaine Ainsley (France), Pari Pari Parkinson (Japan), Will Tucker (Hurricanes), Billy Harmon (Japan), Rhys Patchell (Japan), Connor Garden-Bachop (deceased), Martin Bogado (France)
  • 2024 season: 6th in the regular season with a 6-8 record. Lost in the quarter-finals.
  • Pre-season results:
    • Highlanders 26-21 Moana Pasifika
    • Highlanders 29-24 Crusaders
  • Positives:
    • The vastly experienced Jamie Joseph returns as coach. The Highlanders won the Super Rugby title under him in 2015.
    • Have made some good signings from other Super Rugby franchises during the off-season, including TK Howden from the Hurricanes.
  • Negatives:
    • Had a -97 points difference last season. Every team above them in the standings had a +99 points difference or better.
    • Only scored 37 tries last season, which was the 3rd lowest figure in the league. The Highlanders also finished 10th for points scored.
    • Lack the same quality of depth as the other Kiwi franchises, so injuries will hurt them more than others. They only have one current All Black in Ethan de Groot.
  • Bottom line: It will be interesting to see whether the returning Jamie Joseph can work his magic again after he took the Highlanders to the promised land in 2015. He has gone on record as calling this a rebuild year. The Highlanders have picked up some interesting players from other franchises, but on paper they are once again New Zealand’s weakest team.

 

Hurricanes

Hurricanes

  • Odds to win title: 7.00 (bet365)
  • Coach: Clark Laidlaw (since 2024)
  • Key arrivals: Will Tucker (Highlanders), Zach Gallagher (Crusaders), Ere Enari (Moana Pasikifa), Riley Hohepa (Crusaders)
  • Key departures: Justin Sangster (Japan), Ben Grant (Waratahs), TK Howden (Highlanders), Veveni Lasaqa (Highlanders), TJ Perenara (Japan), Jordie Barrett (Ireland), Salesi Rayasi (France), Joshua Moorby (France)
  • 2024 season: 1st in the regular season with a 12-2 record. Lost in the semi-finals.
  • Pre-season results:
    • Hurricanes 40-43 Chiefs
    • Hurricanes 31-19 Blues
  • Positives:
    • Topped the regular season standings with just two defeats last season.
    • Blues captain Patrick Tuipulotu has named the Hurricanes as their biggest challengers.
  • Negatives:
    • Jordie Barrett is among a number of experienced players who have departed.
    • While they did top the overall standings, the Hurricanes finished 2nd or 3rd for PF, PA, PD, TF and TA.
    • Ardie Savea has opted for Moana Pasifika over Hurricanes following his stint in Japan.
    • Continue to be thin in the fly-half position.
    • There’s the risk of a second-season slump under coach Clark Laidlaw.
  • Bottom line: The Hurricanes were the only side to suffer a rare home playoff defeat last season, which they will be looking to make amends for. Statistically, however, they were a step below the Blues, so another first placed regular season finish will be a tall order.

 

Moana Pasifika

Moana Pasifika

  • Odds to win title: 101.00 (bet365)
  • Coach: Tana Umaga (since 2024)
  • Key arrivals: Pone Fa’amausili (Waratahs), Ardie Savea (Japan), Pat Pellegrini (England), Solomon Alaimao (NRL), Tuna Tuitama (Samoa 7’s), Jackson Garden-Bachop (France)
  • Key departures: Sekope Kepu (retired), Solomone Funaki (Wales), Ere Enari (Hurricanes), Henry Taefu (Japan), Anzelo Tuitavuki (France)
  • 2024 season: 11th in the regular season with a 4-10 record.
  • Pre-season results:
    • Highlanders 26-21 Moana Pasifika
    • Chiefs 31-19 Moana Pasifika
  • Positives:
    • The arrival of Ardie Savea (2023 world player of the year) should give them a shot in the arm.
  • Negatives:
    • While they did avoid the wooden spoon, Moana Pasifika had by far the worst points difference (-220) in the competition last season. The next worst was -147. They finished with the worst PF, PD, TF and TA records.
    • Conceded 71 tries in 14 games last season, which was the most in the competition.
    • Sekope Kepu, who had over 100 Wallabies caps, has retired.
    • They will only play one home game in Tonga.
  • Bottom line: Kepu has departed, but the side has been compensated with the arrival of Ardie Savea to join his brother Julian. Moana Pasifika will find life tougher this season due to the spread of ex-Rebels players to the remaining Australian franchises. Anything other than the wooden spoon would be a victory.

 

Reds

Reds

  • Odds to win title: 15.00 (bet365)
  • Coach: Les Kiss (since 2024)
  • Key arrivals: Matt Gibbon (Rebels), Lukhan Salakaia-Loto (Rebels), Josh Canham (Rebels), Mason Gordon (Rebels), Filipo Dauguno (Rebels), Lachie Anderson (Rebels), Heremaia Murray (Crusaders)
  • Key departures: Peni Ravai (Drua), Cormac Daly (Japan), Connor Anderson (Japan), James O’Connor (Crusaders), Lawson Creighton (Waratahs), Suliasi Vunivalu (France), Mac Grealy (Force), Jordan Petaia (American football)
  • 2024 season: 5th in the regular season with an 8-6 record. Lost in the quarter-finals.
  • Pre-season results:
    • Reds 59-29 Panasonic Wild Knights
    • Reds 48-28 Panasonic Wild Knights
    • Reds 82-21 Bristol Bears
    • Reds 38-31 Ulster
  • Positives:
    • Picked up half a dozen players from the disbanded Rebels squad. This includes some ex-Reds players.
    • Picked up good wins in their pre-season tour.
    • Defeated the Chiefs, Highlanders and Crusaders (in Christchurch) in Les Kiss’s first season in charge last year. The Reds finished that campaign with their highest placing since 2013.
    • Finished last season with the 4th ranked best offence and 4th best points difference.
    • Had the 2nd best percentage of tackles won and conceded the fewest yellow cards (3) in the competition last season.
    • Four of their six defeats were by 7 points or less.
    • Have more players with international experience than any other Australian side.
    • Have retained the services of Fraser McReight, who has won back-to-back Australian Super Rugby Pacific Player of the Year awards.
  • Negatives:
    • Haven’t played any pre-season games against Super Rugby sides.
    • Have the misfortune of having a bye week in Round 1.
    • There is a risk Les Kiss could be distracted by the media connecting him to the Wallabies job.
    • Jordan Petaia and James O’Connor have departed.
  • Bottom line: The Reds were vastly improved last season and with a bolstered squad thanks to the closure of the Rebels, the Reds have further upside potential. They just have to hope they don’t suffer a second-season slump under Kiss like the Force did with Cron last year.

 

Waratahs

Waratahs

  • Odds to win title: 17.00 (bet365)
  • Coach: Dan McKellar (since 2025)
  • Key arrivals: Taniela Tupou (Rebels), Isaac Aedo Kailea (Rebels), Sifa Amone (Force), Ethan Dobbins (Rebels), Ben Grant (Hurricanes), Angelo Smith (Rebels), Rob Leota (Rebels), Lawson Creighton (Reds), Henry O’Donnell (Force), Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i (NRL), Andrew Kellaway (Rebels), Darby Lancaster (Rebels)
  • Key departures: Paddy Ryan (Japan), Enrique Pieretto Heiland (France), Hayden Thompson-Stringer (Japan), Harry Johnson-Holmes (Force), Pone Fa’amausili (Moana Pasifika), Tom Ross (France), Archer Holz (Wales), Jed Holloway (England), Ned Hanigan (France), Lachlan Swinton (France), Izaia Perese (England), Harry Wilson (Wales), Mosese Tuipulotu (SCotland), Dylan Peitsch (Force), Mark Nawaqanitawase (NRL), Vuate Karawalevu (Drua)
  • 2024 season: 12th (wooden spoon) in the regular season with a 2-12 record.
  • Pre-season results:
    • Waratahs 43-17 Kubota Spears
    • Waratahs 73-7 NSW Pacifica
    • Waratahs 36-36 Brumbies
  • Positives:
    • Have been proactive in the off-season to refresh the squad. The 17 new players include the high-profile signing of Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i from the Roosters. The squad has also been bolstered by a group of Wallabies from the disbanded Rebels. This includes Tupou and Kellaway. The squad now features a dozen players with Wallabies caps.
    • Five of their defeats last season were by just 7 points or less.
    • New head coach Dan McKellar won the Super Rugby AU title with the Brumbies in 2020.
  • Negatives:
    • Waratahs 43-17 Kubota Spears
    • Waratahs 73-7 NSW Pacifica
    • Waratahs 36-36 Brumbies
  • Bottom line: The Waratahs squad looks deeper than last season. Like a number of Australian franchises, they have taken advantage of the disbanding of the Rebels. Based on the underlying stats, the Waratahs weren’t as bad as their 2-12 record last year suggested, so based on mean-reversion alone, they should expect better results this campaign.

 

Futures Betting Tips

Compare Super Rugby Pacific odds

It’s hard to look past the Blues to win the title at 3.25 (Unibet). Statistically they were a cut above the competition last year, particularly defensively, and they have been boosted by the return of Beauden Barrett. One telling statistic is the Blues’ average points difference per game last year, including the playoffs, was 19.5. The Hurricanes were next best at 13.4. At the time of writing the 3.25 odds with Unibet are above the equivalent lay odds at Betfair, so I don’t know how long those odds will last.

The Fijian Drua have a tough schedule and their home advantage has been eroded by the fact that they play three of the top four sides at home this season. I also expect they will find life tougher given the infusion of former Rebels players into the Australian franchises. For this reason, I like the 1.65 odds (bet365) for them to miss out on the playoffs. While the Drua did make the playoffs in the previous two seasons, they finished 7th in both campaigns and only the top six make the playoffs this year.

 

Super Rugby Pacific Betting Resources

The following resources are available on this website.

Our sister site provides the following Super Rugby Pacific resources.

Notes

New and departed players lists are primarily sourced from:
https://all.rugby/transfers/super-rugby

 

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