The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 3 of the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific season.
This season continues to deliver high-scoring games. After averaging 65.4 total points in Round 1, Round 2 saw 74.8 average total points. The caveat to these figures, however, is this isn’t new for the beginning of the season and Round 3 has previously delivered comparatively lower scoring games:
2025 average totals:
Round 1: 65.4
Round 2: 74.8
2024 average totals:
Round 1: 52.5
Round 2: 68.8
Round 3: 43.5
Regular season average: 53.9
2023 average totals:
Round 1: 61.3
Round 2: 69.8
Round 3: 44.7
Regular season average: 59.3
Thankfully, total points markets are already available at the time of writing.
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To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering.
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Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders |
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Moana Pasifika’s first two games saw 89 and 92 total points. The Highlanders saw just 50 points in their clash against the Blues last week, but the week before their game against the Waratahs saw 73 points scored. Previous season’s games between these two sides weren’t as high scoring, so I will jump in with one foot instead of two, and recommend a small bet on over 61.5 at 1.91 (bet365).
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Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua |
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The Waratahs will be the fresher of the two sides. The hosts had a bye last week, while the Drua will be playing in the third different country in as many weeks. The Drua haven’t won on Australian soil since Round 3 in 2022. I would back the Waratahs in the head-to-head at 1.29 (Unibet). The Drua’s two defeats so far this season have been by 4 point margins against quality sides, so those looking for more risk should consider the Waratahs 1-12 at 2.95 (Unibet).
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Chiefs vs. Brumbies |
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The Chiefs have been immensely impressive this season. They employed forward grunt to beat the Blues in Round 1, then made seven changes to the squad and thrashed the Crusaders by a 25-point margin a week later. The Brumbies fell 42-45 at home to the Force last week. The Canberra side has gone 1-3 both in the head-to-head and the line as the away underdog over the last twelve months an in recent years they have gone 2-9 away from home against the Chiefs. The head-to-head odds for the Chiefs are painfully short at 1.18, so I will lean towards the 7.5 market. Six of the Chiefs’ seven home wins over the last twelve months were by 8+ margins, while all three of the Brumbies’ away defeats were by 8+. I would back the Chiefs -7.5 at 1.48 (bet365).