The following are betting tips for selected fixtures in Round 4 of the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific season.
To take advantage of the odds before they possibly shorten, these previews are published before the team sheets are announced. Those who are more risk-averse should wait for the squad lists before wagering.
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Total Score Trend
Round 3 continued the recent trend for the third week to provide lower total scores than Rounds 1 & 2. In previous seasons Round 4 picked up in points again so we’ll see what happens this week.
2025 average totals:
Round 1: 65.4
Round 2: 74.8
Round 3: 62.0
2024 average totals:
Round 1: 52.5
Round 2: 68.8
Round 3: 43.5
Round 4: 47.3
Regular season average: 53.9
2023 average totals:
Round 1: 61.3
Round 2: 69.8
Round 3: 44.7
Round 4: 68.2
Regular season average: 59.3
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Blues vs Brumbies |
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The Blues have gone 9-1 at home over the last twelve months and eight of those nine wins were by 13+ margins. The Brumbies have gone 1-3 as the away underdog over the last three months and all three defeats were by 13+ margins. What scares me off the Blues 13+ selection, however, is they haven’t reached their 2024 level this season and the Brumbies went toe to toe (29-29 after 62 minutes) with the pace-setting Chiefs last week before they faded in the final quarter. What I’ll do instead is focus on the total score.
The Brumbies have averaged 79.3 total points per game this season and their last two games saw 87 and 83 total points. The Blues have averaged just 50.3 points per game, but they have only faced domestic opposition thus far, and international games tend to result in higher scores. The Blues and Brumbies last met in the semi-finals last year, which saw 54 total points. With the Brumbies’ defence this year as bad as it is (32, 45 & 49 points conceded), another 4 points should be easy to come by. I would back over 57.5 points at 1.91 (bet365).
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Waratahs vs. Force |
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Both sides have been involved in nothing but close contests this season. The Waratahs’ opening two wins were by 1-point and 5-point margins, while the Force won by 1 and 3 points, before losing by 4 points. The Waratahs have gone 0-4 at the line as the favourite over the last twelve months and the Force managed an impressive away win over the Brumbies in Round 2, so I will back the Force +8.5 at 1.91 (bet365).