The following are betting tips for the Opening Round of the 2025 AFL season.
The round features just two fixtures this year due to Cyclone Alfred. This has seen the postponement of Brisbane’s and Gold Coast’s home fixtures.
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Draftstars have a $75,000 fantasy sports contest for the Swans v Hawks clash and a $60,000 contest for the Giants v Magpies game. Entry costs $15 and the top 25% of participants will receive a payout.
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Sydney vs. Hawthorn |
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Sydney went 11-3 at home in 2024, but punters have spooked by the ankle injury to Errol Gulden. This has ruled him out for at least five weeks. The Swans will also be without captain Callum Mills for three to four weeks. Among the other nine players in rehab are Robbie Fox, Logan McDonald and Harry Cunningham. Brodie Grundy and Tom Papley will need to pass fitness tests if they are to feature this week. A notable change from last year is Sydney begin life under new head coach Dean Cox. Cox had been an assistant coach under John Longmire since 2018, so he knows the club inside and out, but it remains to be seen what impact Longmire’s departure will have.
Hawthorn went 7-7 away from home last season but they finished 2024 in completely different form to the way they started it. From Round 11 onward, the youthful Hawthorn went 12-3, while Sydney went 10-6. The Hawks finished in 7-2 form and their two defeats were by 2 and 3 point margins. Hawthorn also boast an impressive 5-2 record as the away favourite against Sydney going back to 2009. When the Hawks get on top they really get their tails up. Over the last twelve months 6 of their 7 away wins were by 25+ points. Meanwhile, two of Sydney’s three home defeats last season were by 25+ margins. Counting against Hawthorn, however, is the fact they were beaten comfortably in their last three meetings with Sydney.
Sydney averaged 179.4 points per game at the SCG in 2024, but since 2013 the average total is 164.7. Even in 2023, the Swans averaged only 163.5 total points in Sydney. Hawthorn, meanwhile, averaged 162.9 total points away from home in 2024. I will back mean reversion to occur for the hosts, which will lower the Swans’ total match scores in Sydney.
Given it’s just the opening weekend, I will add some points for security and back Under 180.5 at 1.52 (bet365).
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GWS vs. Collingwood |
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Greater Western Sydney had a glorious season that unfortunately ended with three straight defeats. Their semi-final defeat to eventual Premiers Brisbane will hurt the most given the Giants led 92-67 after three quarters. GWS commence this season without five suspended players. This compounds an injury list that includes headline signing Jake Stringer (42 goals last season) and 2024 Coleman Medal winner Jesse Hogan (77 goals last season). Also out is star midfielder Tom Green. In better news, Callum Brown and Kieren Briggs are back from a injury and illness, respectively.
Collingwood won both the minor premiership and the premiership in 2023, but failed to make the finals the following year. Their 9th placed finish could have been much worse given the Pies went 6-1 in games that were decided by a goal or less. The big out for Collingwood this week is Jordan De Goey, who suffered a bruised knee in training.
GWS opened as 1.68 favourites but have drifted to 2.20 at the time of writing. Despite their depleted stocks, the Giants will be buoyed by the fact that they have won four in a row at home against the Magpies. I’m going to bet on the carryover form from last season, however. GWS lost their final three games while Collingwood won four of their last five. The Pies defeated Brisbane during that run and their only defeat during that stretch came by a 3-point margin against Sydney.
GWS undoubtedly have the squad to make the top 8, but with so many outs this week, I will back Collingwood. All ten of the Giants’ defeats last season were by 1-39 margins, while 9 of Collingwood’s 12 wins were by 1-39 margins. I will back Collingwood 1-39 at 2.20 (bet365).